FEATURED STOCKS

Posted 03/21/21

Prepared by Dr. J

Dermtech , Inc. - DMTK closing price 57.60 MC 1.66 billion

1-2 year target 100-200

3-5 year target 200-600

As I understand it, Dermtech's Pigmented Lesion Assay (PLA) is to melanoma detection what Exact Science's Cologuard is to colon cancer detection. It is a circular patch affixed to the area containing the suspicious mole that removes both dna and rna from the patient's lesion and is sent Fedex back to Dermatech's lab for genetic analysis. The company views its mission to "bring precision to the practice of dermatology through non-invasive genomic assessment of the skin." Recent highlights include:

FDA approved q3 of 2020 and produced 2.1 million in revenues for q4
Medicare reimbursement is $750 per test and the company is starting to get insurance company coverage around the country
The market for new cases is unfortunately growing by about 1.5% a year
Quarter over quarter growth should be parabolic as seniors and the rest of the population become vaccinated against Covid-19 and make much delayed appointments with their dermatologists
The chart of dmtk over the last 4 quarters paints a corroborating picture of an avant-garde company using non-invasive genetic testing to help save lives
the company is working on similar tests for other skin cancers

BOTTOM LINE: the price of the company stock should continue to rise as analysts continue to bump up their targets

Risks:

Dilution is always a possibility as the company grows until it becomes profitable.
Some dermatologists may be reluctant to use the PLA since biopsy is their "bread and butter". This risk is more than compensated for by the anticipated use of the PLA by primary physicians due to its ease of administration.
A hostile takeover or competition from BP could limit its upward potential.

Disclaimer: Dr. J is long this name and may buy or sell shares at any time. Do your own due diligence and/or consult with your investment advisor. Our opinions are our own and do not constitute investment advice. Every attempt is made to be accurate but we are not responsible for any inaccuracies.

Posted and edited 2/17/21 by Dr. J

Prepared by Fosco Research

Avadel Pharamceuticals - AVDL closing price 8.84 MC 515M

1-2 year target 20-40

3-5 year target 40-90

Avadel's lead drug candidate, FT218 is a once-nightly formulation of sodium oxybate (Xyrem, generics) using a proprietary Micropump™ technology for extended-release oral suspension for patients with narcolepsy who experience cataplexy or excessive daytime sleepiness.

Expected catalysts

NDA filing acceptance (Feb 21)

NDA approval (Oct 21)

BOTTOM LINE: the stock is enormously undervalued considering the superiority of FT218 over the competition. Avadel's once nightly single dose drug should capture the lion's share of the narcolepsy market (200,000 in the US alone) which is currently monopolized by JAZZ pharmaceuticals (9B Market cap).

RISKS: JAZZ the leader in the narcolepsy drug market poses the main risk currently seen by analysts who follow the stock. JAZZ or the FDA could ask for the compound to be considered a generic drug or Jazz could sue for patent infringement. These risks are considered low. A positive risk is the FDA granting priority review which could have an immediate effect on the stock price on or around Feb 21.

Disclaimer: Dr. J and Fosco are long this name and may buy or sell shares at any time. Do your own due diligence and/or consult with your investment advisor. Our opinions are our own and do not constitute investment advice. Every attempt is made to be accurate but we are not responsible for any inaccuracies.

The following featured stock was posted 12/30/20

by Dr. J

Athersys, Inc. ATHX closing price 1.85 MC 366M

1-2 year target 5-8

3-5 year target 50-200

A clinical stage regenerative medicine company featuring MultiStem, an allogeneic stem cell compound, currently in trials for 3 indications:
ischemic stroke (phase 3) both in Japan (TREASURE) and United States and Europe (Masters-2)
Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) from all causes (phase 3)
ARDS from Covid-19 (phase 3)
Trauma (phase 2)
Expected catalysts
5 person Covid-19 trial in Japan (early Q1)
Last person dosed in IS in Treasure trial (early Q1)
Interim report on COVID-19 ARDS in US (Q1)
European partner (Q1)
Treasure data readout (Q2)

BOTTOM LINE: the stock is enormously undervalued considering the vast market for IS and the strong likelihood for success based on the redefinition of the primary endpoint from what Athersys learned from its failed ph 2 trial with Roche (Chugai). The data showed clear superiority over placebo in a subset of patients receiving the drug within 36 hours of onset. I believe, under this new inclusion criteria the likelihood of both safety and efficacy is high. With anticipated approvals first in Japan, followed by US and EU MultiStem could easily become a multibillion dollar blockbuster.

RISKS: the COVID-19 trial proves to be a bust as it did for rival Mesoblast. Growing dissension on the BOD causes unforeseen problems. No partnership is reached and there is further dilution. TREASURE fails to meet its endpoints.

Disclaimer: Dr, J is very long this name but does not intend to trade this stock for at least 3 trading days. Do your own due diligence and/or consult with your investment advisor. Our opinions are our own and do not constitute investment advice

The following featured stock was posted 12/6

by Dr. J

CTI Biopharma CTIC closing price 12/4/2020 3.26 MC 240 million

1-2 year target 5-9

3-5 year target 9-36

CATALYSTS

Rolling NDA for pacritinib for a targeted subset of Myelofibrosis MF due for completion first quarter of 2021, with approval six months later and rollout by 4Q21
The Phase 3 PRE-VENT study will evaluate whether pacritinib can prevent progression to acute respiratory distress syndrome and mechanical ventilation. Data readout First half of 2021. More than a dozen sites participating including several prominent hospitals in NY
Oral presentation of preclinical and Phase 1 trial data of pacritinib in acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) at American Society of Hematology (ASH) 2020 – December 6, 2020

Disclaimer-Do your own due diligence and/or consult with your investment advisor. Our opinions are our own and do not constitute investment advice.